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Multifamily at an Inflection Point
Multifamily real estate historically moves through predictable cycles driven by supply, renter demand and the timing of new apartment deliveries. Strong rent growth and low vacancy encourage development, but long construction timelines mean new supply often arrives after demand has peaked, temporarily increasing vacancy and slowing rent growth.
The most recent expansion occurred during the post-pandemic recovery. In 2021, national apartment vacancies fell below 5% while rent growth reached a record 15.3%, according to RealPage. These unusually strong fundamentals triggered a surge in new development across the U.S.
By 2023, nearly 970,000 multifamily units were under construction nationwide – the largest pipeline since the early 1970s, according to the National Association of Home Builders. As these projects delivered in 2024 and 2025, vacancy increased and rent growth slowed. By late 2025, national vacancy approached 9% and rent growth moderated to less than 1%.
Historically, the most attractive investment opportunities occur when new supply peaks and development activity begins to decline. That shift is now underway. The multifamily construction pipeline has fallen roughly 50% from its recent peak, leading to significantly fewer new deliveries coming in 2026-2028.
At the same time, renter demand remains strong. The U.S. absorbed approximately 335,000 apartments last year – one of the highest levels of the past 25 years. And elevated home prices and mortgage rates continue to support renting as the most attainable housing option for many Americans.
As the recent deliveries are absorbed and new supply declines, multifamily fundamentals are expected to improve, signaling a good time to invest.
The Power of Onsite Management
In multifamily investment, the importance of onsite property management is often underestimated. Lenders push back on salaries viewed as “too high” and acquisition teams sometimes reduce headcount to improve margins. These decisions can have a negative impact on property performance. In reality, experienced onsite teams – including management, leasing and maintenance – generate meaningful returns on investment.
Great property managers build lasting relationships with residents, set clear operational standards and resolve issues before they escalate. Skilled maintenance teams improve resident satisfaction and preserve properties by addressing small issues before they become costly problems.
The financial impact of strong onsite management includes lower turnover, fewer concessions, higher collections, faster leasing velocity and higher renewal rates. Well-run communities also generate better online reviews and attract higher-quality prospects. Conversely, under-investing in onsite teams can reveal itself through rising bad debt, deferred maintenance, avoidable vacancy loss and declining resident satisfaction.
The salary premium for great onsite teams is often a small fraction of the value they create. Multifamily assets function like small businesses and the right personnel can drive superior performance.
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